In late September, Morningstar published estimates suggesting that Nvidia’s revenue could top $400 billion in the financial year ending January 2027 and exceed $700 billion the year after. A few days later the chipmaker added $150 billion to its share buyback programme, and on 5 October its shares closed at a record $238.90. Numbers this large can feel abstract, so this guide breaks down, step by step, how analysts get from today’s figures to a view on where the shares might be by the end of the decade, and which assumptions matter most.
Step one: start with revenue
Every long-term forecast begins with sales. Nvidia makes the graphics processing units, or GPUs, that train and run most artificial intelligence systems. In the three months to late July 2026, it reported revenue of $96.2 billion, more than double a year earlier, and guided for $106 billion to $110 billion in the following quarter. Its data centre division alone brought in $89 billion, up 117%.
The key question for 2030 is how long that growth can continue. If AI adoption keeps spreading across businesses and governments, demand for computing power may grow for years. If spending on new data centres slows, as some investors feared earlier in 2026, growth could level off sooner. Morningstar’s numbers imply strong growth for at least two more years; beyond that, estimates diverge widely.
Step two: estimate profit margins
Revenue only matters if it turns into profit. Nvidia’s gross margin, the share of each dollar of sales left after the cost of making its products, has stayed near 75%, an exceptionally high level for a hardware company. That reflects strong demand and limited competition at the top end of the market.
Long-term forecasts must decide whether margins of that kind can last. Competitors are working on alternatives, and some of Nvidia’s biggest customers are designing their own chips. Even a modest fall in margins, spread over several years of very large sales, can change profit estimates by tens of billions of dollars.
Step three: account for share count
The share price depends on profit per share, not total profit. That is where buybacks come in. When a company buys back its own shares, there are fewer left, so each one represents a larger piece of the business. After the late-September increase, Nvidia had $235 billion of remaining buyback authorisation, which market reports described as the largest in corporate history. If used over the coming years, it could noticeably reduce the share count and support earnings per share.
Morningstar’s figures put earnings per share at around $9.50 in the current financial year and about $16.61 the year after. At a share price of roughly $224, where the stock traded on 23 September, that is about 23 times this year’s expected earnings and about 13 times next year’s.
Step four: choose a valuation multiple
The final step is the most subjective. Analysts multiply expected earnings per share by a price-to-earnings ratio that reflects how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of profit. Fast-growing companies usually command higher multiples; mature ones lower.
This is why long-term price projections for the stock can differ so much from one another. One analyst may assume earnings keep growing and investors pay 25 times profit; another may assume growth slows and the multiple falls to 15. Apply those two choices to the same earnings estimate and the resulting price targets can be far apart. Near-term targets from major banks already show a range: Morgan Stanley’s is $300 and BNP Paribas’s $345.
For readers who want to compare published long-term projections, a resource on nvidia share price forecast 2030 scenarios can show how different assumptions lead to different outcomes. The useful habit is to look past the headline number and ask which revenue, margin and multiple assumptions sit behind it.
Step five: test the risks
A sensible view of 2030 also considers what could go wrong. Interest rates are one factor: on 23 September the yield on 10-year US government bonds rose above 5%, its highest since 2007, and Nvidia’s shares fell more than 2% that day. Higher rates make future profits worth less today. Political and safety debates around AI are another: chip stocks dropped on 14 September after several AI industry leaders called for a slowdown in developing the most powerful models.
Concentration is a third. Nvidia was worth about $5.8 trillion in early October and was the largest contributor to the S&P 500’s gains this year. A company of that size has fewer easy paths to growing several times larger, simply because it already captures so much of its market.
Linking forecasts to your own goals
For UK readers thinking about how this fits their finances, the main point is that a forecast is a scenario, not a promise. Many people already hold Nvidia indirectly through pension funds and global trackers. Before acting on any projection, it helps to check how much of a portfolio is already exposed to large US technology companies and whether that matches the level of risk and the time horizon that suit personal goals.
The next milestones to watch are Nvidia’s quarterly results, the US Federal Reserve’s decision on 28 October and any signs of change in data centre spending by the largest technology groups.